Electricity
Our range of forecasts
Energy Link’s range of forecasts encompasses the short term and the long term:
- Electricity price and location factor forecasts 12 months out - updates available end of each month
- Electricity price path and location factors for 1 through 11 years out - updated quarterly
- Electricity price path extension and location factors for 12 through 21 years out - updated as required
- Individual pool surplus (rentals rebates) forecasts by GXP 12 months out - updated end of each month
We also undertake a wide range of customised forecasting and scenario analyses using the EMarket and EMarketOffer models. These assignments can cover the very long term, or look in close detail and great accuracy at very short term effects in particular regions of the New Zealand Grid. The EMarketOffer model allows us to supplement modelling using EMarket when fine detail is required around changes to demand or generation on the grid, or to the grid itself.
Our forecasting methodology
Our forecasting methodology is designed to handle the volatility and complexity inherent in the electricity market. We first develop our base case scenario, which is our view of what is most likely to occur over the period of the forecast, assuming “rational” behaviour in the market, and run this through the EMarket forecasting model.
We then run more scenarios to test the effect of the key assumptions we make in the base case.
Finally, we provide a comprehensive report on the key inputs and assumptions made in our forecasts, helping you to understand the scenarios and providing insights into key issues such as market participants’ commercial and operating strategies.
Form and delivery of the forecasts
Our forecasts are sent by email and hard copy in a summarised form including a concise report, charts, assumptions and commentary on the inputs and strategies. The detailed forecast scenario data is also made available by email.