Submitted on June 23, 2022

The FPVV index rose this month, bringing the main index up to 15.6 c/kWh. Resulting in an increase of 11.4% over last month's index value.

The CFD index remained unchanged because there were no CFDs traded.

There were only four FPVV contracts traded over the last month, and the total traded volume in MWh was the second-lowest since 2017, and the lowest since February 2021.

In recent posts, we have noted that buyers appeared to be signing longer terms to reduce the average contract price. But perhaps this strategy has run its course, with the index now at its highest ever value.

At 15.6 c/kWh, it is 84% higher than the index average from February 2009 (when Energy Link started calculating it) to the end of 2020.

But if we think things are bad here, spare a thought for our friends on the east coast of Australia. On 15th June the market operator, AEMO, suspended the spot market due to ongoing outages and is only just now tentatively looking to go back to semi-normal operations.

The equivalent of the Energy Link indexes in Australia is Energy Action's Price Indexes, which are now sitting at between 24.5 c/kWh in NSW and 15.0 c/kWh in South Australia and are more than double the previous peaks in some states.

The big question is when will prices come back to more normal levels? Or, will they ever come back down?

Well, they say that "the cure for high prices is high prices." So, we have no doubt that prices will come down as gas supplies are restored, reducing dependence on coal imported from globally stressed coal markets, and as new renewable generation is built over the few years.

 

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