News: Blog, Hydro Watch

The FPVV index rose this month, bringing the main index up to 15.6 c/kWh. Resulting in an increase of 11.4% over last month's index value.The CFD index remained unchanged because there were no CFDs traded.

 Total storage increased 164.5 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage increased 4.9% to 1573 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 5.6% to 380 GWh; with Taupo storage increasing 35.4% to 270 GWh.

 Total storage increased 32.8 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 2.3% to 1,557 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 21% to 383 GWh; with Taupo storage increasing 1.8% to 182 GWh.

 Total storage decreased 106 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 5.4% to 1,594 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage decreased 1.8% to 316 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 4.8% to 179 GWh.

 Total storage decreased 143.5 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 6.5% to 1,742 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 3.7% to 312 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 13.3% to 215 GWh.

The CFD index fell by around 20% this month, not because contract prices fell, but because nine of the 16 CFDs included in the index have terms of five years or greater. This tends to average out some of the high prices currently making up the ASX forward curve.Four CFDs have terms of 10 years. FPVV terms are also longer than the typical, but none went beyond five years.

 Total storage decreased 86 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 5.5% to 1,910 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 37% to 156 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 5.6% to 289 GWh.

 Total storage decreased 183.4 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 7.3% to 2,021 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 10% to 114 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 10.1% to 306 GWh.

The Electricity Authority’s Market Development Group (MDAG) recently consulted on the initial phase of its investigation into price formation, with 100% renewable generation in our energy-only market. Energy Link contributed to this work and has also submitted.

The CFD index pushed up again this month, toward the ASX three-year average, but the FPVV index went down slightly on a greater volume (relative to CFDs). So overall, the main index rose by 1.8% to 11.3 c/kWh.

We have often pointed out that ASX futures prices don’t always appear to behave rationally.  In this post we look at the spread (difference) between the ASX futures prices at Benmore and Otahuhu.

As we make the transition to net-zero carbon, it’s always interesting see forecasts of emissions in the future. Every time we run our quarterly long-term forecast, the ‘Price Path’, we get updated forecasts of how emissions might change in the electricity sector.

After a strong finish to 2021, the traded energy volume for index-qualifying contracts fell sharply this month, though the total number of contracts traded remained relatively high: 9 FPVV and 8 CFD.

 Total storage increased 32.6 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage increased 0.2% to 2,928 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage decreased 18.8% to 263 GWh; with Taupo storage increasing 22.4% to 473 GWh.

 Total storage decreased 67.3 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 3.7% to 2,423 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 30.7% to 241 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 7.8% to 373 GWh.

 2021 finished with a flourish, with 24 contracts qualifying for inclusion in the index and a total volume of 2,471 GWh, the second highest volume since mid-2018. This may reflect pent-up demand for contracts after a long period of high prices, with buyers taking the opportunity to lock in prices while the spot market was relatively settled in the lead-up to the summer holidays. 

The frequency of blog posts fell off last year after October as we found ourselves in an early Christmas rush period. We hope to be more consistent this year. First up, our submission on the Electricity Authority’s wholesale market review.

CFD index went down, FPVV index went up, so no change to the overall index this month, which stayed at 11.1 c/kWh ($111/MWh)

 Total storage increased 234.1 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage increased 9.9% to 2,539 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 0.6% to 448 GWh; with Taupo storage increasing 0.6% to 457 GWh.