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News: Blog, Hydro Watch


Hydro Watch 30 June 2022 Issue 1,315

By Lydia Maclean, June 30, 2022

 Total storage decreased 65.2 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 5.4% to 1549 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 7.1% to 435 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 1.2% to 407 GWh. 


Hydro Watch 23 June 2022 Issue 1,314

By Lydia Maclean, June 27, 2022

Total storage decreased 83.4 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 3.3% to 1637 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage decreased 10.3% to 406 GWh; with Taupo storage increasing by 5% to 412 GWh.


Electricity Contract Indexes June 2022, Issue 159

By Lydia Maclean, June 23, 2022

The FPVV index rose this month, bringing the main index up to 15.6 c/kWh. Resulting in an increase of 11.4% over last month's index value.The CFD index remained unchanged because there were no CFDs traded.


Hydro Watch 16 June 2022 Issue 1,313

By Lydia Maclean, June 16, 2022

Total storage increased 315.6 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage increased 7.7% to 1694 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 19.2% to 453 GWh; with Taupo storage increasing 45.2% to 392 GWh.


Hydro Watch 9 June 2022 Issue 1,312

By Lydia Maclean, June 13, 2022

 Total storage increased 164.5 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage increased 4.9% to 1573 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 5.6% to 380 GWh; with Taupo storage increasing 35.4% to 270 GWh.


Hydro Watch 2 June 2022 Issue 1,311

By Tom Murphy, June 2, 2022

 Total storage decreased 63.7 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 3.7% to 1,499 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage decreased 5.9% to 360 GWh; with Taupo storage increasing 9.4% to 199 GWh. 


Hydro Watch 26 May 2022 Issue 1,310

By Ruth McKinlay, May 27, 2022

 Total storage increased 32.8 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 2.3% to 1,557 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 21% to 383 GWh; with Taupo storage increasing 1.8% to 182 GWh.


Electricity Contract Indexes May 2022, Issue 158

By Lydia Maclean, May 23, 2022

The CFD and FPVV indexes rose this month to bring the main index up to 14 c/kWh, an increase of 23% over last month's index value.


Hydro Watch 19 May 2022 Issue 1,309

By Ruth McKinlay, May 19, 2022

 Total storage decreased 106 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 5.4% to 1,594 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage decreased 1.8% to 316 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 4.8% to 179 GWh.


Hydro Watch 12 May 2022 Issue 1,308

By Ruth McKinlay, May 12, 2022

 Total storage decreased 73.7 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 3.2% to 1,686 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 3% to 322 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 12.5% to 188 GWh. 


Hydro Watch 5 May 2022 Issue 1,307

By Ruth McKinlay, May 5, 2022

 Total storage decreased 143.5 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 6.5% to 1,742 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 3.7% to 312 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 13.3% to 215 GWh.


Hydro Watch 28 April 2022 Issue 1,306

By Ruth McKinlay, April 28, 2022

Total storage increased 166 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage increased 4% to 1864 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 54.1% to 301 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 4.6% to 248 GWh.


Electricity Contract Indexes April 2022, Issue 157

By Lydia Maclean, April 26, 2022

The CFD index fell by around 20% this month, not because contract prices fell, but because nine of the 16 CFDs included in the index have terms of five years or greater. This tends to average out some of the high prices currently making up the ASX forward curve.Four CFDs have terms of 10 years. FPVV terms are also longer than the typical, but none went beyond five years.

Electricity market


Hydro Watch 21 April 2022 Issue 1,305

By Ruth McKinlay, April 21, 2022

 Total storage decreased 108.3 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 6.2% to 1,791 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 25.6% to 195 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 10% to 260 GWh.


Hydro Watch 14 April 2022 Issue 1,304

By Ruth McKinlay, April 19, 2022

 Total storage decreased 86 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 5.5% to 1,910 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 37% to 156 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 5.6% to 289 GWh.


Manapouri Low Output

By Lydia Maclean, April 12, 2022

Everyone is wondering why spot and futures prices are so high at the moment. There is more than one extraordinary factor involved here, including fall-out from the war in the Ukraine to large a degree, but today we look at one that can be easy to miss.


Hydro Watch 7 April 2022 Issue 1,303

By Ruth McKinlay, April 8, 2022

 Total storage decreased 183.4 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 7.3% to 2,021 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 10% to 114 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 10.1% to 306 GWh.


Hydro Watch 31 March 2022 Issue 1,302

By Ruth McKinlay, March 31, 2022

Total storage decreased 188 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 6.7 % to 2,181 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage decreased 21.7 % to 103 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 0.7 % to 340 GWh.


100% Renewables Submission

By Lydia Maclean, March 28, 2022

The Electricity Authority’s Market Development Group (MDAG) recently consulted on the initial phase of its investigation into price formation, with 100% renewable generation in our energy-only market. Energy Link contributed to this work and has also submitted.

Electricity market


Hydro Watch 24 March 2022 Issue 1,301

By Ruth McKinlay, March 24, 2022

 Total storage decreased 186.5 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 6% to 2,338 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage decreased 21.6% to 132 GWh; with Taupo storage remaining steady at 343 GWh.


Electricity Contract Indexes March 2022, Issue 156

By Lydia Maclean, March 22, 2022

The CFD index pushed up again this month, toward the ASX three-year average, but the FPVV index went down slightly on a greater volume (relative to CFDs). So overall, the main index rose by 1.8% to 11.3 c/kWh.

Electricity market


Hydro Watch 17 March 2022 Issue 1,300

By Ruth McKinlay, March 17, 2022

 Total storage decreased 189.5 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 4.8% to 2,487 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage decreased 13.7% to 168 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 10% to 343 GWh. 


Nodal Spreads in ASX Futures Prices

By Ruth McKinlay, March 14, 2022

We have often pointed out that ASX futures prices don’t always appear to behave rationally.  In this post we look at the spread (difference) between the ASX futures prices at Benmore and Otahuhu.

Electricity market


Hydro Watch 10 March 2022 Issue 1,299

By Ruth McKinlay, March 10, 2022

 Total storage decreased 166.3 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 4.2% to 2,612 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage decreased 10.6% to 195 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 7.1% to 382 GWh.


Price Path Emissions

By Greg Sise, March 7, 2022

As we make the transition to net-zero carbon, it’s always interesting see forecasts of emissions in the future. Every time we run our quarterly long-term forecast, the ‘Price Path’, we get updated forecasts of how emissions might change in the electricity sector.

Electricity market


Hydro Watch 3 March 2022 Issue 1,298

By Ruth McKinlay, March 4, 2022

 Total storage decreased 203.5 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 4.5% to 2,726 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage decreased 17.6% to 218 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 6.8% to 411 GWh.


Electricity Contract Indexes February 2022, Issue 155

By Ruth McKinlay, February 28, 2022

After a strong finish to 2021, the traded energy volume for index-qualifying contracts fell sharply this month, though the total number of contracts traded remained relatively high: 9 FPVV and 8 CFD.


Hydro Watch 24 February 2022 Issue 1,297

By Ruth McKinlay, February 24, 2022

 Total storage decreased 106.3 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 2.6% to 2,853 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 0.5% to 265 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 6.7% to 441 GWh.


Hydro Watch 17 February 2022 Issue 1,296

By Ruth McKinlay, February 17, 2022

 Total storage increased 32.6 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage increased 0.2% to 2,928 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage decreased 18.8% to 263 GWh; with Taupo storage increasing 22.4% to 473 GWh.


Hydro Watch 10 February 2022 Issue 1,295

By Ruth McKinlay, February 10, 2022

 Total storage increased 594.9 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage increased 20.6 % to 2,921 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 34.5 % to 324 GWh; with Taupo storage increasing 3.6 % to 386 GWh.


Hydro Watch 3 February 2022 Issue 1,294

By Ruth McKinlay, February 4, 2022

 Total storage decreased 67.3 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 3.7% to 2,423 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 30.7% to 241 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 7.8% to 373 GWh.


Hydro Watch 27 January 2022 Issue 1,293

By Tom Murphy, January 28, 2022

Total storage decreased 192.4 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 3.8% to 2516 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage decreased 25.9% to 185 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 6.5% to 404 GWh.


Electricity Contract Indexes January 2022, Issue 154

By Ruth McKinlay, January 24, 2022

 2021 finished with a flourish, with 24 contracts qualifying for inclusion in the index and a total volume of 2,471 GWh, the second highest volume since mid-2018. This may reflect pent-up demand for contracts after a long period of high prices, with buyers taking the opportunity to lock in prices while the spot market was relatively settled in the lead-up to the summer holidays. 


Hydro Watch 20 January 2022 Issue 1,292

By Ruth McKinlay, January 20, 2022

 Total storage decreased 187.8 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 2.9% to 2,615 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage decreased 22.3% to 249 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 8% to 432 GWh.


Wholesale Market Review

By Greg Sise, January 18, 2022

The frequency of blog posts fell off last year after October as we found ourselves in an early Christmas rush period. We hope to be more consistent this year. First up, our submission on the Electricity Authority’s wholesale market review.

Electricity market, Hedging


Hydro Watch 23 December 2021 - 13 January 2022 Issues 1,288 - 1,291

By Ruth McKinlay, January 14, 2022

Total storage decreased 184.2 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage decreased 3.3% to 2,694 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage decreased 17% to 321 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 5.5% to 470 GWh.


Electricity Contract Indexes December 2021, Issue 153

By Greg Sise, December 20, 2021

CFD index went down, FPVV index went up, so no change to the overall index this month, which stayed at 11.1 c/kWh ($111/MWh)

Electricity market, Hedging


Hydro Watch 16 December 2021, Issue 1,287

By Ruth McKinlay, December 17, 2021

Total storage increased 28 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage increased 2.3% to 2,598 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage decreased 18.8% to 364 GWh; with Taupo storage increasing 11.5% to 510 GWh.


Hydro Watch 9 December 2021, Issue 1,286

By Ruth McKinlay, December 9, 2021

 Total storage increased 234.1 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage increased 9.9% to 2,539 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage increased 0.6% to 448 GWh; with Taupo storage increasing 0.6% to 457 GWh.


Hydro Watch 2 December 2021, Issue 1,285

By Ruth McKinlay, December 3, 2021

 Total storage increased 37.6 GWh over the last week. South Island controlled storage increased 3.4% to 2,310 GWh; South Island uncontrolled storage decreased 5.1% to 445 GWh; with Taupo storage decreasing 3% to 454 GWh.

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